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XOCP · Vegas vs XOCP

Week 4 winners

Who wins each game, twice: once from the betting market, and once from XOCP, which adds up every player's fantasy projection on a team into a real score.

XOCP and Vegas pick the same winner in 16 of 16 games. So far this week: XOCP right 9 of 16, Vegas right 9 of 16.

Open any game to see every player behind XOCP's score, and after the game what each one actually scored.

Lines captured Thu, Oct 1, 7:21 PM ET · XOCP scores from projections read Thu, Oct 1, 7:21 PM ET

16 of 16 games

GameAway team at home team, kickoff in Eastern time. Open a game to see every player behind XOCP's score.Vegas favouriteThe team the betting market favours and by how many points: the median spread across books when XOCP made its pick.MoneylineMedian moneyline across books. Minus is what you risk to win $100; plus is what a $100 bet wins.Line moveMedian spread from our first capture to the latest, and the close once the game kicks off. The chart rises as the home side becomes a bigger favourite.XOCP scoreXOCP's projected real score: each player's projected touchdowns, kicks and defensive scores added up.XOCP winnerWho XOCP's projected scores say wins, and by how much.AgreeWhether XOCP and Vegas pick the same winner, and how far apart their margins are.ResultThe final score, and whether XOCP and Vegas each picked the winner.
Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ETPIT by 2.59 booksPIT -152CLE +129PIT -2.5 → PIT -2.5No movePIT 21.1CLE 18.9PIT by 2.2Yes0.3 pts apartPIT 24, CLE 27XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ETIND by 4.59 booksIND -210WAS +173IND -3.5 → IND -4.51 toward INDIND 25.1WAS 22.3IND by 2.8Yes1.7 pts apartIND 30, WAS 13XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETBAL by 11.59 booksTEN +538BAL -770BAL -11.5 → BAL -11.5No moveTEN 15.6BAL 27.8BAL by 12.2Yes0.7 pts apartTEN 18, BAL 24XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETBUF by 7.09 booksNE +265BUF -335BUF -6.5 → BUF -70.5 toward BUFNE 21.4BUF 27.9BUF by 6.5Yes0.5 pts apartNE 29, BUF 26XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETCHI by 3.59 booksNYJ +160CHI -189CHI -3 → CHI -3.50.5 toward CHINYJ 20.1CHI 25.1CHI by 5.0Yes1.5 pts apartNYJ 12, CHI 23XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETCIN by 2.59 booksJAX +120CIN -142CIN -2.5 → CIN -2.5No moveJAX 25.5CIN 28.0CIN by 2.5Yes0.0 pts apartJAX 22, CIN 17XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETHOU by 3.09 booksDAL +127HOU -150HOU -2.5 → HOU -30.5 toward HOUDAL 24.2HOU 27.9HOU by 3.7Yes0.7 pts apartDAL 34, HOU 30XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETARI by 2.59 booksARI -139NYG +119ARI -1.5 → ARI -2.51 toward ARIARI 23.6NYG 21.1ARI by 2.6Yes0.1 pts apartARI 24, NYG 36XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLA by 3.59 booksLA -185PHI +160LA -3 → LA -3.50.5 toward LALA 24.0PHI 20.7LA by 3.2Yes0.3 pts apartLA 24, PHI 20XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETGB by 3.09 booksGB -155TB +130GB -4 → GB -31 toward TBGB 22.2TB 20.0GB by 2.2Yes0.8 pts apartGB 17, TB 14XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETMIN by 10.09 booksMIA +425MIN -575MIN -11 → MIN -101 toward MIAMIA 15.3MIN 27.2MIN by 11.9Yes1.9 pts apartMIA 10, MIN 15XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETKC by 5.09 booksKC -230LV +190KC -4.25 → KC -50.75 toward KCKC 26.5LV 22.3KC by 4.2Yes0.8 pts apartKC 30, LV 27XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETSEA by 7.09 booksLAC +270SEA -345SEA -7 → SEA -7No moveLAC 18.9SEA 27.3SEA by 8.3Yes1.3 pts apartLAC 23, SEA 30XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETSF by 3.09 booksDEN +140SF -164SF -3 → SF -3No moveDEN 23.4SF 25.5SF by 2.2Yes0.8 pts apartDEN 14, SF 24XOCP Right · Vegas Right
Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETDET by 4.09 booksDET -210CAR +180DET -3.5 → DET -40.5 toward DETDET 26.7CAR 24.4DET by 2.3Yes1.7 pts apartDET 26, CAR 32XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong
Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ETNO by 1.09 booksATL -103NO -116NO -2.5 → NO -11.5 toward ATLATL 25.2NO 25.2NO by 0.1Yes0.9 pts apartATL 45, NO 24XOCP Wrong · Vegas Wrong

How XOCP gets its score

Every player's projected stats for the week (RotoWire, through Sleeper) turned into real points: 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, 3 per field goal, 1 per extra point, 6 per defensive or return touchdown. Passing touchdowns are already counted as the receiver's. Two-point conversions and safeties are not projected. The per-player numbers are on the projections page.

The Vegas line is the median across the US sportsbooks The Odds API lists. A "pts apart" figure is the gap between the two predicted margins.

Read this before trusting XOCP

The projections XOCP adds up very likely already use the betting lines, so the two usually agree, and when they don't the market has the better record. Every pick is recorded before kickoff and graded here after the game, right or wrong.