Preview · Steelers at Browns · Week 4
Nine sacks in three weeks. Now Pittsburgh's rush comes to Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson has been sacked nine times this season and has never beaten the Steelers. We say Pittsburgh gets to him at least three times on Thursday night and holds him under the betting line.
The calls, graded
- MissPittsburgh sacks Deshaun Watson at least three times.Pittsburgh sacked Watson twice, for 8 yards: one by Payton Wilson, one by T.J. Watt.
- MissWatson throws for fewer than 187.5 yards.Watson threw for 268 yards (24 of 33), 80.5 over the 187.5 line. He had 181 by halftime.
Nine sacks, three games
Deshaun Watson was sacked five times in Jacksonville in week 1, a 34-10 loss. He was sacked twice more in Tampa Bay and twice again against Carolina. That is nine sacks in three games, and the Browns won the last two anyway, 23-19 and 21-18.
The passing has thinned out as the season has gone on: 205 yards in week 1, 238 in week 2, and 144 against Carolina on 30 attempts. He has kept plays alive with his legs, 24 carries for 105 yards, and that is the part of his game this story has to beat.
The rush that is coming
Pittsburgh has 8 sacks in its first three games: 4 against Atlanta, 3 in New England, 1 against Cincinnati. T.J. Watt has 3.5 of them. Derrick Harmon, the Steelers' 2025 first-round pick, has 1.5, including the only sack of the 30-27 win over the Bengals.
The Steelers are 2-1. So are the Browns. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite at the nine US sportsbooks we track.
Two linemen down
Cleveland will play Thursday without two of its interior linemen. Center Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and guard Teven Jenkins (back) were both ruled out on Wednesday's injury report. Elgton Jenkins did not practice all week; Teven Jenkins sat out Monday and was limited Tuesday and Wednesday.
That puts Watson behind a replacement center and a replacement guard, the middle of the line a pass rush attacks first, against a Pittsburgh front with 8 sacks in three games.
What the numbers expect, and where we split from them
The sportsbooks set Watson's passing yards at 187.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, and 182.5 at BetRivers, as of early Wednesday. XOCP's own projection is higher: 219 yards on 29 attempts.
We are taking the under on both. Watson has cleared 187.5 in two of three games. The one he didn't was the most recent.
The case against us
Cleveland has history on its side. Mary Kay Cabot of cleveland.com counts the Browns at 10-2 at home on Thursday nights, 4-0 against the Steelers, and 7-0 on Thursday nights since 2018.
Watson knows what the night means. "It's huge. It's major," he said Tuesday. "It's a great opportunity to showcase what we're about on a big national stage." Cabot also notes he will have to break his own 0-3 streak against Pittsburgh, including 0-2 with the Browns.
A quarterback who runs can turn a sack into a 5-yard scramble, and a quick game built on short throws can take the rush out of the night entirely. If Watson plays that way, our first call is in trouble, even if the second one survives.
The calls
Two calls, graded in public after the game, right or wrong.
One: Pittsburgh sacks Watson at least three times. Two: Watson throws for fewer than 187.5 yards.
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